**Recent FBI search warrants and device seizures in an active federal civil rights probe tied to sexual misconduct allegations make swift federal charging by late September unlikely.** The warrants, executed August 16–17 at San Francisco International Airport and Swalwell’s Washington, D.C., residence, targeted an inquiry into possible violations of 18 U.S.C. § 242 (deprivation of rights under color of law) and related offenses, following allegations from multiple women that surfaced earlier this year. Swalwell resigned his House seat and exited the California gubernatorial race in April after these claims emerged; he has denied the assault allegations while acknowledging prior mistakes in judgment. Separate state-level inquiries by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department remain ongoing, alongside the federal effort, but no charging decisions have been announced in any jurisdiction. The recent declassification of decade-old FBI files on Swalwell’s past contacts with suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang—released amid political scrutiny but yielding no prior charges—appears unrelated to the current sexual misconduct cases. With the raids occurring only days ago and federal prosecutions of this nature typically requiring extended evidence review, grand jury processes, and coordination, traders assess meaningful probability that charges will be filed within the narrow remaining window.