Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors EU continuity before 2027, with 96.5% implied probability on "No," anchored by formidable structural barriers including unanimous treaty revisions or sequential Article 50 withdrawals—each requiring two years and parliamentary ratification amid deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary elections decisively ousted Euroskeptic Viktor Orbán, installing pro-EU center-right leader Péter Magyar with Tisza's landslide victory and record turnout, unlocking frozen funds and easing internal tensions over rule-of-law disputes and Ukraine aid. Absent any Article 50 invocations since Brexit or planned referendums, recent EU advances like the multibillion-euro 2028-2034 budget approval reinforce stability. Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented cascade of member-state exits, severe financial crisis, or geopolitical fracture eroding cohesion.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоEU dissolves before 2027?
EU dissolves before 2027?
$166,093 Обс.
$166,093 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$166,093 Обс.
$166,093 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors EU continuity before 2027, with 96.5% implied probability on "No," anchored by formidable structural barriers including unanimous treaty revisions or sequential Article 50 withdrawals—each requiring two years and parliamentary ratification amid deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary elections decisively ousted Euroskeptic Viktor Orbán, installing pro-EU center-right leader Péter Magyar with Tisza's landslide victory and record turnout, unlocking frozen funds and easing internal tensions over rule-of-law disputes and Ukraine aid. Absent any Article 50 invocations since Brexit or planned referendums, recent EU advances like the multibillion-euro 2028-2034 budget approval reinforce stability. Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented cascade of member-state exits, severe financial crisis, or geopolitical fracture eroding cohesion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$166,093Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors EU continuity before 2027, with 96.5% implied probability on "No," anchored by formidable structural barriers including unanimous treaty revisions or sequential Article 50 withdrawals—each requiring two years and parliamentary ratification amid deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary elections decisively ousted Euroskeptic Viktor Orbán, installing pro-EU center-right leader Péter Magyar with Tisza's landslide victory and record turnout, unlocking frozen funds and easing internal tensions over rule-of-law disputes and Ukraine aid. Absent any Article 50 invocations since Brexit or planned referendums, recent EU advances like the multibillion-euro 2028-2034 budget approval reinforce stability. Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented cascade of member-state exits, severe financial crisis, or geopolitical fracture eroding cohesion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$166,093Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors EU continuity before 2027, with 96.5% implied probability on "No," anchored by formidable structural barriers including unanimous treaty revisions or sequential Article 50 withdrawals—each requiring two years and parliamentary ratification amid deep economic interdependence via the single market and eurozone. Hungary's April 2026 parliamentary elections decisively ousted Euroskeptic Viktor Orbán, installing pro-EU center-right leader Péter Magyar with Tisza's landslide victory and record turnout, unlocking frozen funds and easing internal tensions over rule-of-law disputes and Ukraine aid. Absent any Article 50 invocations since Brexit or planned referendums, recent EU advances like the multibillion-euro 2028-2034 budget approval reinforce stability. Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented cascade of member-state exits, severe financial crisis, or geopolitical fracture eroding cohesion.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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