Recent polling averages place Miljöpartiet support between 6.3% and 7.2% in the weeks before the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, keeping the over/under 7% line closely balanced. The Greens benefit from centre-left bloc momentum and emphasis on climate policy but face headwinds from voter priorities on crime, security, and the economy that favor larger parties. Fluctuations in recent surveys from Novus, Demoskop, and others reflect modest gains when environmental issues surface alongside risks of losing ground to the Social Democrats or Left Party in vote consolidation. Late-campaign events such as televised debates, shifts in turnout among younger or urban voters, or any major policy focus on renewables versus fiscal concerns could move the implied probability either direction before election day.