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Економ·Економічна політика

GDP growth in 2026

icon for GDP growth in 2026
Економ·Економічна політика

GDP growth in 2026

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

Jul 30

Jan 29, 2027

2.0–2.5% 19%

<0.5% 18.6%

0.5–1.0% 12.5%

1.0–1.5% 12.0%

Polymarket

$28,267 Обс.

2.0–2.5% 19%

<0.5% 18.6%

0.5–1.0% 12.5%

1.0–1.5% 12.0%

Polymarket

$28,267 Обс.

<0.5%

$3,906 Обс.

19%

0.5–1.0%

$15,332 Обс.

13%

1.0–1.5%

$1,562 Обс.

12%

1.5–2.0%

$1,534 Обс.

44%

2.0–2.5%

$1,846 Обс.

22%

>2.5%

$4,088 Обс.

36%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0 percent band, which holds the highest implied probability at 44.8 percent. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act continue to support consumer spending and investment, yet higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies exert offsetting pressure on net exports and labor supply. This balance keeps the >2.5 percent outcome competitive at 35.5 percent while the 2.0–2.5 percent range sits at 22.0 percent. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and second-quarter GDP will serve as key swing factors, allowing markets to refine the 2026 growth trajectory amid ongoing policy uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$28,267
Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent first-quarter 2026 GDP growth of 2.0 percent annualized has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.0 percent band, which holds the highest implied probability at 44.8 percent. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act continue to support consumer spending and investment, yet higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies exert offsetting pressure on net exports and labor supply. This balance keeps the >2.5 percent outcome competitive at 35.5 percent while the 2.0–2.5 percent range sits at 22.0 percent. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and second-quarter GDP will serve as key swing factors, allowing markets to refine the 2026 growth trajectory amid ongoing policy uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$28,267
Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«GDP growth in 2026» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1.5–2.0%» з 44%, далі «>2.5%» з 36%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «GDP growth in 2026» згенерував $28.3K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 12, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «GDP growth in 2026», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «GDP growth in 2026» — «1.5–2.0%» з 44%. Наступний — «>2.5%» з 36%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «GDP growth in 2026» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.