Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Bev Craig 83%
Dan Barker 14.1%
Geraldine Coggins 3.2%
Hannah Spencer <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig
83%
Dan Barker
14%
Geraldine Coggins
3%
Hannah Spencer
1%
Marlon Scott West
1%
Paul Dennett
<1%
Kate Green
<1%
Nick Buckley
<1%
Arooj Shah
<1%
Jake Austin
<1%
Laura Evans
<1%
Bev Craig 83%
Dan Barker 14.1%
Geraldine Coggins 3.2%
Hannah Spencer <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
Bev Craig
$881 Обс.
83%
Dan Barker
$738 Обс.
14%
Geraldine Coggins
$603 Обс.
3%
Hannah Spencer
$1,044 Обс.
1%
Marlon Scott West
$465 Обс.
1%
Paul Dennett
$451 Обс.
<1%
Kate Green
$425 Обс.
<1%
Nick Buckley
$476 Обс.
<1%
Arooj Shah
$613 Обс.
<1%
Jake Austin
$558 Обс.
<1%
Laura Evans
$411 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,665Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Обсяг
$6,665Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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