Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$50,409 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$50,409 Обс.
August 31
$27,900 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$50,409Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$50,409Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains de facto control over Greater Tunb Island since its 1971 seizure, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims and repeated diplomatic protests through the GCC and other forums. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian missile storage, launch sites, and coastal defenses on the island as part of broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading some military infrastructure without altering administrative control. UAE-linked tanker incidents in mid-August 2026 and mutual warnings have heightened tensions but produced no reported shifts in on-ground authority or occupation. Trader assessments of near-term change reflect the island’s entrenched Iranian military presence, absence of enforcement mechanisms to transfer sovereignty, and focus on diplomatic or multilateral channels rather than immediate territorial reversal.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання