**Cloud cover, showers, and a regional weather disturbance are the main factors capping expected highs near 29–31°C for August 25 in Hong Kong.** The Hong Kong Observatory currently forecasts 26–29°C under heavy rain and high humidity, while broader seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for late August. Recent model runs show variability in the timing and intensity of precipitation, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C depending on solar insolation and wind patterns at the official station. Historical late-August maxima cluster around 31–33°C under clearer conditions, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 30°C and 32°C. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely drive any further shifts in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
31°C 30%
30°C 25%
32°C 23%
29°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
16%
30°C
25%
31°C
30%
32°C
23%
33°C
6%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
2%
31°C 30%
30°C 25%
32°C 23%
29°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$167 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$75 Обс.
2%
28°C
$2,158 Обс.
5%
29°C
$139 Обс.
16%
30°C
$65 Обс.
25%
31°C
$78 Обс.
30%
32°C
$382 Обс.
23%
33°C
$529 Обс.
6%
34°C
$306 Обс.
<1%
35°C or higher
$145 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Cloud cover, showers, and a regional weather disturbance are the main factors capping expected highs near 29–31°C for August 25 in Hong Kong.** The Hong Kong Observatory currently forecasts 26–29°C under heavy rain and high humidity, while broader seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for late August. Recent model runs show variability in the timing and intensity of precipitation, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C depending on solar insolation and wind patterns at the official station. Historical late-August maxima cluster around 31–33°C under clearer conditions, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 30°C and 32°C. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely drive any further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,054Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Cloud cover, showers, and a regional weather disturbance are the main factors capping expected highs near 29–31°C for August 25 in Hong Kong.** The Hong Kong Observatory currently forecasts 26–29°C under heavy rain and high humidity, while broader seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for late August. Recent model runs show variability in the timing and intensity of precipitation, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C depending on solar insolation and wind patterns at the official station. Historical late-August maxima cluster around 31–33°C under clearer conditions, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 30°C and 32°C. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely drive any further shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$4,054Дата завершення
Aug 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cloud cover, showers, and a regional weather disturbance are the main factors capping expected highs near 29–31°C for August 25 in Hong Kong.** The Hong Kong Observatory currently forecasts 26–29°C under heavy rain and high humidity, while broader seasonal guidance indicates normal-to-above-normal temperatures for late August. Recent model runs show variability in the timing and intensity of precipitation, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C depending on solar insolation and wind patterns at the official station. Historical late-August maxima cluster around 31–33°C under clearer conditions, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 30°C and 32°C. Updated HKO guidance and ensemble forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely drive any further shifts in trader positioning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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