Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
32°C 46%
33°C 44%
34°C 9%
31°C 4%
НОВЕ
$10,367 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,367 Обс.
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
46%
33°C
44%
34°C
9%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 46%
33°C 44%
34°C 9%
31°C 4%
НОВЕ
$10,367 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,367 Обс.
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
$660 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$300 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$403 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$135 Обс.
1%
30°C
$119 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$384 Обс.
4%
32°C
$3,926 Обс.
46%
33°C
$3,495 Обс.
44%
34°C
$657 Обс.
9%
35°C
$156 Обс.
1%
36°C or higher
$133 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,367Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$10,367Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Madrid under stable high pressure with clear skies and light southerly flow on September 21, favoring afternoon highs near 31–33°C. This setup, following a warmer-than-average September with limited cloud cover, supports the tight market split between 32°C and 33°C. Key uncertainties include small differences in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any subtle advection changes that could shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Official AEMET updates and the next ECMWF run on September 20 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution. Historical September maxima average around 25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth currently priced in.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання