Traders have overwhelmingly priced the highest temperature in Manila on August 12 at exactly 30°C because official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations consistently project this value amid the prevailing southwest monsoon. This pattern delivers cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity across Metro Manila, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall—conditions typical for the region's August climatology. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated confidence in these verified meteorological factors rather than speculation. A realistic shift away from 30°C would require unexpected model revisions, such as a sudden monsoon break producing clearer skies and stronger insolation that pushes readings above 31°C, or unusually intense localized downpours suppressing the high below the threshold; however, current agency guidance shows low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on August 12?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 12?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$34,234 Обс.
$34,234 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$34,234 Обс.
$34,234 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
$445 Обс.
No
25°C
$581 Обс.
No
26°C
$333 Обс.
No
27°C
$1,076 Обс.
No
28°C
$1,303 Обс.
No
29°C
$4,666 Обс.
No
30°C
$6,024 Обс.
Yes
31°C
$9,736 Обс.
No
32°C
$5,219 Обс.
No
33°C
$3,698 Обс.
No
34°C or higher
$1,153 Обс.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the highest temperature in Manila on August 12 at exactly 30°C because official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations consistently project this value amid the prevailing southwest monsoon. This pattern delivers cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity across Metro Manila, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall—conditions typical for the region's August climatology. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated confidence in these verified meteorological factors rather than speculation. A realistic shift away from 30°C would require unexpected model revisions, such as a sudden monsoon break producing clearer skies and stronger insolation that pushes readings above 31°C, or unusually intense localized downpours suppressing the high below the threshold; however, current agency guidance shows low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Обсяг
$34,234Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: Yes
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the highest temperature in Manila on August 12 at exactly 30°C because official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations consistently project this value amid the prevailing southwest monsoon. This pattern delivers cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity across Metro Manila, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall—conditions typical for the region's August climatology. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated confidence in these verified meteorological factors rather than speculation. A realistic shift away from 30°C would require unexpected model revisions, such as a sudden monsoon break producing clearer skies and stronger insolation that pushes readings above 31°C, or unusually intense localized downpours suppressing the high below the threshold; however, current agency guidance shows low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$34,234Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: Yes
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: Yes
Traders have overwhelmingly priced the highest temperature in Manila on August 12 at exactly 30°C because official PAGASA forecasts and real-time observations consistently project this value amid the prevailing southwest monsoon. This pattern delivers cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity across Metro Manila, limiting daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from rainfall—conditions typical for the region's August climatology. The market-implied odds reflect aggregated confidence in these verified meteorological factors rather than speculation. A realistic shift away from 30°C would require unexpected model revisions, such as a sudden monsoon break producing clearer skies and stronger insolation that pushes readings above 31°C, or unusually intense localized downpours suppressing the high below the threshold; however, current agency guidance shows low likelihood of such deviations before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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