**Forecast models for Moscow on August 4, 2026, currently cluster daily maximum temperatures near 25–27°C, producing closely matched market probabilities (26°C at 24.0%, 25°C at 20.5%, 27°C at 17.5%).** This narrow spread arises from typical ensemble uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction two days ahead. Key variables include the precise strength and position of any high-pressure ridge over European Russia, which favors clear skies and daytime heating, versus modest increases in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture that could limit peak values by 1–2°C. Surface wind direction and speed further differentiate outcomes: light southerly flow can advect slightly warmer continental air, while northerly shifts or stronger mixing lower the maximum. Official guidance from sources such as ECMWF and GFS ensembles shows most members within this 24–28°C window, with tails below 23°C or above 28°C receiving lower probabilities consistent with the market’s 3% or less for 29°C+. Updated model runs and satellite-derived temperature observations over the next 24–48 hours will narrow the spread as the event approaches.