Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on August 4?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 4?
28°C 30%
29°C 26%
30°C 16%
27°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
11%
27°C
13%
28°C
30%
29°C
26%
30°C
16%
31°C
11%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 30%
29°C 26%
30°C 16%
27°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$5 Обс.
1%
25°C
$28 Обс.
6%
26°C
$0 Обс.
11%
27°C
$0 Обс.
13%
28°C
$0 Обс.
30%
29°C
$0 Обс.
26%
30°C
$0 Обс.
16%
31°C
$0 Обс.
11%
32°C
$13 Обс.
6%
33°C or higher
$21 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$67Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$67Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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