Recent forecasts for Shenzhen point to persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and monsoon moisture through early August, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping highs near or below 30°C on August 4. Numerical models show modest spread around peak values because of uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, which directly influences boundary-layer temperatures via evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32°C, but the current pattern of organized convection and elevated humidity has pulled consensus lower, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities between 29°C and 31°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could push realized maximums higher or lower.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?
31°C 34%
29°C 31%
30°C 19%
28°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
6%
27°C
3%
28°C
12%
29°C
31%
30°C
19%
31°C
34%
32°C
7%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 34%
29°C 31%
30°C 19%
28°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$22 Обс.
6%
27°C
$0 Обс.
3%
28°C
$40 Обс.
12%
29°C
$84 Обс.
31%
30°C
$0 Обс.
19%
31°C
$0 Обс.
34%
32°C
$0 Обс.
7%
33°C
$5 Обс.
4%
34°C
$110 Обс.
2%
35°C or higher
$110 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen point to persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and monsoon moisture through early August, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping highs near or below 30°C on August 4. Numerical models show modest spread around peak values because of uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, which directly influences boundary-layer temperatures via evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32°C, but the current pattern of organized convection and elevated humidity has pulled consensus lower, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities between 29°C and 31°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could push realized maximums higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$381Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Shenzhen point to persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and monsoon moisture through early August, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping highs near or below 30°C on August 4. Numerical models show modest spread around peak values because of uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, which directly influences boundary-layer temperatures via evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32°C, but the current pattern of organized convection and elevated humidity has pulled consensus lower, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities between 29°C and 31°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could push realized maximums higher or lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$381Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Shenzhen point to persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and monsoon moisture through early August, limiting daytime solar heating and keeping highs near or below 30°C on August 4. Numerical models show modest spread around peak values because of uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, which directly influences boundary-layer temperatures via evaporative cooling. Historical August climatology places average highs near 32°C, but the current pattern of organized convection and elevated humidity has pulled consensus lower, creating the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities between 29°C and 31°C. Updated model runs and any shifts in steering flow or sea-surface temperatures over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could push realized maximums higher or lower.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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