**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Taipei on August 3?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 3?
37°C 38%
36°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
6%
35°C
14%
36°C
34%
37°C
38%
38°C
12%
39°C
3%
40°C or higher
6%
37°C 38%
36°C 34%
35°C 14%
38°C 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
30°C or below
$70 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$47 Обс.
1%
32°C
$20 Обс.
2%
33°C
$14 Обс.
3%
34°C
$3 Обс.
6%
35°C
$20 Обс.
14%
36°C
$241 Обс.
34%
37°C
$117 Обс.
38%
38°C
$188 Обс.
12%
39°C
$201 Обс.
3%
40°C or higher
$10 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$931Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$931Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds favor 36–37°C for Taipei’s August 3 peak, reflecting model uncertainty around peak insolation in a subtropical summer regime.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance currently projects a 35°C high under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow, yet traders price modest upside because historical analogs show urban heat-island amplification and brief clear-sky windows can add 1–2°C above guidance. Key differentiating variables include boundary-layer mixing depth, afternoon sea-breeze onset timing, and any late-day convective cloud development that caps surface heating. With 48-hour lead time, the next CWA model runs and satellite-derived land-surface temperature trends will narrow the 35–37°C spread that currently dominates trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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