Short-range ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 27–29°C for Istanbul’s August 3 maximum, with 28°C edging the lead at 34.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature warm Black Sea and Marmara waters sustaining daytime heating, moderated by variable northerly Etesian winds and patchy cloud development that can trim peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Minor model disagreements on boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention create the narrow spread, while historical August averages near 28–29°C anchor expectations. Updated high-resolution runs from the Turkish Meteorological Service and 12–18 UTC model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 3?
28°C 35%
29°C 31%
27°C 30%
30°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
5%
27°C
30%
28°C
35%
29°C
31%
30°C
6%
31°C
2%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 35%
29°C 31%
27°C 30%
30°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$0 Обс.
1%
25°C
$1 Обс.
3%
26°C
$0 Обс.
5%
27°C
$16 Обс.
30%
28°C
$55 Обс.
35%
29°C
$40 Обс.
31%
30°C
$0 Обс.
6%
31°C
$0 Обс.
2%
32°C
$6 Обс.
2%
33°C or higher
$10 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 27–29°C for Istanbul’s August 3 maximum, with 28°C edging the lead at 34.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature warm Black Sea and Marmara waters sustaining daytime heating, moderated by variable northerly Etesian winds and patchy cloud development that can trim peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Minor model disagreements on boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention create the narrow spread, while historical August averages near 28–29°C anchor expectations. Updated high-resolution runs from the Turkish Meteorological Service and 12–18 UTC model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$128Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 27–29°C for Istanbul’s August 3 maximum, with 28°C edging the lead at 34.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature warm Black Sea and Marmara waters sustaining daytime heating, moderated by variable northerly Etesian winds and patchy cloud development that can trim peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Minor model disagreements on boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention create the narrow spread, while historical August averages near 28–29°C anchor expectations. Updated high-resolution runs from the Turkish Meteorological Service and 12–18 UTC model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$128Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 27–29°C for Istanbul’s August 3 maximum, with 28°C edging the lead at 34.5%. Typical late-summer conditions feature warm Black Sea and Marmara waters sustaining daytime heating, moderated by variable northerly Etesian winds and patchy cloud development that can trim peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Minor model disagreements on boundary-layer moisture and urban heat retention create the narrow spread, while historical August averages near 28–29°C anchor expectations. Updated high-resolution runs from the Turkish Meteorological Service and 12–18 UTC model cycles in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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