Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 3?
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
25%
27°C
38%
28°C
25%
29°C
9%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 38%
26°C 25%
28°C 25%
29°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 3, 2026
22°C or below
$239 Обс.
1%
23°C
$264 Обс.
1%
24°C
$704 Обс.
2%
25°C
$82 Обс.
6%
26°C
$346 Обс.
25%
27°C
$677 Обс.
38%
28°C
$89 Обс.
25%
29°C
$78 Обс.
9%
30°C
$106 Обс.
4%
31°C
$216 Обс.
1%
32°C or higher
$144 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,945Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,945Дата завершення
Aug 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA forecasts indicate cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 3, 2026, which are expected to limit daytime heating and keep the maximum temperature near or slightly below the early-August normal of 31.8 °C. This outlook, combined with model consensus showing highs in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, underpins trader preference for the 26–28 °C range that currently holds roughly 87 % combined implied probability. Persistent humidity and the absence of strong insolation or warm-air advection further cap upside potential, while the low probabilities assigned to 29 °C and above reflect limited scope for rapid clearing or intensification before the market resolves. Updated short-range guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover remain the key near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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