Current numerical weather prediction models indicate a likely peak temperature near 29–30°C in Warsaw on August 3, aligning with the market’s highest probabilities amid typical late-summer conditions over central Europe. Ensemble spreads from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS reflect moderate uncertainty driven by variable cloud cover, potential weak frontal passages, and local urban heat effects that can alter maximum readings by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology for the region centers near 25–26°C, so any stronger high-pressure ridge or reduced moisture could push outcomes toward 31°C or higher, while increased instability would favor the lower tail near 28°C. Updated model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will refine steering patterns and boundary-layer heating, directly influencing trader adjustments ahead of resolution.