Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps checkpoints, missile systems, and naval operations that support its broader assertions of authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. The 2026 conflict, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February, led Iran to impose transit restrictions and attack noncompliant vessels, prompting repeated U.S. naval blockades, airstrikes on coastal defenses, and responses to shipping incidents into August. A June memorandum of understanding with Oman aimed at safe passage and shared management collapsed amid renewed attacks, while ongoing bilateral talks in Muscat focus on routing and authority without ceding Iranian sovereignty over the island itself. Escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs on strait administration remain the main variables that could alter the status quo before any resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$61,669 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$61,669 Обс.
August 31
$49,933 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps checkpoints, missile systems, and naval operations that support its broader assertions of authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. The 2026 conflict, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February, led Iran to impose transit restrictions and attack noncompliant vessels, prompting repeated U.S. naval blockades, airstrikes on coastal defenses, and responses to shipping incidents into August. A June memorandum of understanding with Oman aimed at safe passage and shared management collapsed amid renewed attacks, while ongoing bilateral talks in Muscat focus on routing and authority without ceding Iranian sovereignty over the island itself. Escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs on strait administration remain the main variables that could alter the status quo before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$61,669Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps checkpoints, missile systems, and naval operations that support its broader assertions of authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. The 2026 conflict, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February, led Iran to impose transit restrictions and attack noncompliant vessels, prompting repeated U.S. naval blockades, airstrikes on coastal defenses, and responses to shipping incidents into August. A June memorandum of understanding with Oman aimed at safe passage and shared management collapsed amid renewed attacks, while ongoing bilateral talks in Muscat focus on routing and authority without ceding Iranian sovereignty over the island itself. Escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs on strait administration remain the main variables that could alter the status quo before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$61,669Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps checkpoints, missile systems, and naval operations that support its broader assertions of authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. The 2026 conflict, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February, led Iran to impose transit restrictions and attack noncompliant vessels, prompting repeated U.S. naval blockades, airstrikes on coastal defenses, and responses to shipping incidents into August. A June memorandum of understanding with Oman aimed at safe passage and shared management collapsed amid renewed attacks, while ongoing bilateral talks in Muscat focus on routing and authority without ceding Iranian sovereignty over the island itself. Escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs on strait administration remain the main variables that could alter the status quo before any resolution date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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