USGS global seismic catalogs confirm six earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during the May 11–17 window, aligning precisely with the market-implied odds of 94.5% for that outcome. Trader consensus reflects the absence of major aftershock sequences or unusual clustering along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, keeping activity near the long-term weekly average of five to eight such events. No magnitude 7+ shocks or significant mid-ocean ridge swarms have appeared in preliminary data, supporting the narrow distribution around six while leaving minimal room for higher counts. Final resolution will depend on any late catalog updates from the USGS, though historical patterns suggest revisions rarely shift totals by more than one event once the period closes.