**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
50%
Democratic Party
49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$847 Обс.
50%
Democratic Party
$854 Обс.
49%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,701Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$1,701Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Democrats a 56% implied probability to win Iowa's 3rd Congressional District House seat, ahead of Republicans at 27%, reflecting polls showing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leading incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn and Cook Political Report's January shift to Toss-up from Lean Republican.** This competitive swing district, encompassing the Des Moines metro, saw Nunn secure reelection by just four points in 2024, aligning with Trump's narrow margin. Recent Democratic primary consolidation behind Trone Garriott—following State Rep. Jennifer Konfrst's January suspension and endorsement—has strengthened her position, bolstered by DCCC Red to Blue targeting and superior fundraising. With uncontested June 2 closed primaries approaching, Vice President JD Vance's May 6 rally for Nunn highlights GOP mobilization, but traders weigh persistent polling edges for Democrats amid national midterm dynamics and key voting blocs like suburban independents.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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