Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено<-2.4% 91%
3.2%–4.0% 48%
2.4%–3.2% 44.6%
4.0%+ 44.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
91%
-2.4%– -1.6%
40%
-1.6%– -0.8%
35%
-0.8%–0.0%
44%
0.0%–0.8%
-
0.8%–1.6%
44%
1.6%–2.4%
44%
2.4%–3.2%
45%
3.2%–4.0%
48%
4.0%+
45%
<-2.4% 91%
3.2%–4.0% 48%
2.4%–3.2% 44.6%
4.0%+ 44.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$21 Обс.
91%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$21 Обс.
40%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$16 Обс.
35%
-0.8%–0.0%
$16 Обс.
44%
0.0%–0.8%
$215 Обс.
-
0.8%–1.6%
$21 Обс.
44%
1.6%–2.4%
$21 Обс.
44%
2.4%–3.2%
$16 Обс.
45%
3.2%–4.0%
$60 Обс.
48%
4.0%+
$20 Обс.
45%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$427Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Обсяг
$427Дата завершення
Aug 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions and elevated energy prices have emerged as the dominant headwind, pressuring Japan's terms of trade, corporate margins, and real household income while tempering consumption and capex after Q1's 0.5% QoQ annualized expansion. Professional forecasts for Q2 2026 cluster narrowly around +0.3% to +0.52% annualized, yet the closely matched Polymarket odds across positive and negative ranges reflect trader uncertainty over whether wage gains and export resilience can offset these drags versus downside risks from sustained inflation and yen weakness. Bank of Japan policy normalization and upcoming August GDP release remain key swing factors in the current skin-in-the-game consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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