The closure of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on April 24, 2026, with no charges filed, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader consensus at low single-digit implied probabilities for any federal indictment by year-end. The probe, opened in January 2026 over Powell’s congressional testimony regarding the Fed’s headquarters renovation costs, produced no evidence of criminal conduct after judicial review quashed subpoenas and the U.S. Attorney’s office concluded its review. Powell’s subsequent transition from Chair to governor through 2028 further reduces near-term exposure. With no new regulatory filings, executive actions, or congressional developments reported since April, markets price in the absence of ongoing legal risk and longstanding institutional norms protecting central bank independence. Any material shift would require substantial new facts not currently in evidence.