Persistent high pressure and above-normal daytime heating maintained elevated overnight lows across central Texas, with National Weather Service observations confirming a 76°F minimum at Austin Bergstrom on September 9, 2026—seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal of 69°F. Ensemble forecast guidance from recent model runs consistently projected this range amid suppressed radiational cooling and southerly flow, aligning with the market's 99% implied probability for 76–77°F. Historical September lows near 53°F illustrate the rarity of sharp drops without frontal passage, while the absence of such triggers in the 48-hour lead-up reinforced trader consensus. An unforecasted cold-air advection or clearer skies enabling stronger surface cooling could have shifted outcomes lower, though official data showed no such development.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Austin on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 9?
76-77°F 99%
74-75°F 13%
72-73°F 7%
70-71°F 3%
$1,250 Обс.
$1,250 Обс.
Sep 9, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
99%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 99%
74-75°F 13%
72-73°F 7%
70-71°F 3%
$1,250 Обс.
$1,250 Обс.
Sep 9, 2026
69°F or below
$93 Обс.
1%
70-71°F
$158 Обс.
3%
72-73°F
$20 Обс.
7%
74-75°F
$30 Обс.
13%
76-77°F
$215 Обс.
99%
78-79°F
$176 Обс.
<1%
80-81°F
$50 Обс.
<1%
82-83°F
$80 Обс.
<1%
84-85°F
$114 Обс.
<1%
86-87°F
$185 Обс.
<1%
88°F or higher
$129 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal daytime heating maintained elevated overnight lows across central Texas, with National Weather Service observations confirming a 76°F minimum at Austin Bergstrom on September 9, 2026—seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal of 69°F. Ensemble forecast guidance from recent model runs consistently projected this range amid suppressed radiational cooling and southerly flow, aligning with the market's 99% implied probability for 76–77°F. Historical September lows near 53°F illustrate the rarity of sharp drops without frontal passage, while the absence of such triggers in the 48-hour lead-up reinforced trader consensus. An unforecasted cold-air advection or clearer skies enabling stronger surface cooling could have shifted outcomes lower, though official data showed no such development.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,250Дата завершення
Sep 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and above-normal daytime heating maintained elevated overnight lows across central Texas, with National Weather Service observations confirming a 76°F minimum at Austin Bergstrom on September 9, 2026—seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal of 69°F. Ensemble forecast guidance from recent model runs consistently projected this range amid suppressed radiational cooling and southerly flow, aligning with the market's 99% implied probability for 76–77°F. Historical September lows near 53°F illustrate the rarity of sharp drops without frontal passage, while the absence of such triggers in the 48-hour lead-up reinforced trader consensus. An unforecasted cold-air advection or clearer skies enabling stronger surface cooling could have shifted outcomes lower, though official data showed no such development.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,250Дата завершення
Sep 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and above-normal daytime heating maintained elevated overnight lows across central Texas, with National Weather Service observations confirming a 76°F minimum at Austin Bergstrom on September 9, 2026—seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal of 69°F. Ensemble forecast guidance from recent model runs consistently projected this range amid suppressed radiational cooling and southerly flow, aligning with the market's 99% implied probability for 76–77°F. Historical September lows near 53°F illustrate the rarity of sharp drops without frontal passage, while the absence of such triggers in the 48-hour lead-up reinforced trader consensus. An unforecasted cold-air advection or clearer skies enabling stronger surface cooling could have shifted outcomes lower, though official data showed no such development.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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