Forecast models from NOAA and NHC indicate Miami's July 16 overnight low will likely settle near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light southeast winds, keeping radiative cooling limited in the humid subtropical air mass. Sea-breeze moderation from the warm Atlantic and Gulf Stream, combined with typical urban heat island effects, supports this range, while scattered afternoon convection may reduce clear-sky cooling overnight. Historical July minima average 78°F, but current guidance shows slight model spread on cloud thickness and wind speed that could shift the low by 2–3°F either way. Traders are pricing tight probabilities across 78–83°F bins because fresh model runs and local observations offer no decisive edge on exact minimum thresholds before the 24-hour window closes.