Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to overnight lows in the upper 70s on June 12 amid typical early-summer subtropical conditions, with high dew points limiting radiative cooling and sea-breeze effects moderating temperatures. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms and persistent easterly flow are expected to keep skies partly cloudy into the night, preventing sharper drops below 77°F while maintaining the narrow range between 78–81°F that accounts for most market-implied probability. Historical June climatology shows average lows near 77–79°F, with year-to-year variability driven mainly by cloud cover and wind speed rather than large-scale pattern shifts; the tight clustering around these bins reflects trader assessment of limited deviation from this baseline absent an unexpected surge in moisture or clearing skies.