Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and national meteorological services converge on a minimum temperature of 18–19°C for Milan on September 15, driven by clear skies, light easterly winds under 5 km/h, and high pressure maintaining dry conditions that permit moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with current surface observations near 19°C and diurnal ranges typical of late-summer anticyclonic setups, where daytime highs reach 26–28°C before temperatures bottom out around dawn. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects model agreement on the absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as increased cloud cover or northerly flow, while the notable share assigned to 13°C or below captures residual tail risk from forecast shifts in steering patterns. Historical September minima average near 14°C, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated model runs and official NHC-equivalent briefings from Italian agencies will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Milan on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 15?
13°C or below 51%
23°C or higher 51%
22°C 39%
18°C 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
13°C or below
51%
14°C
17%
15°C
20%
16°C
21%
17°C
23%
18°C
29%
19°C
28%
20°C
23%
21°C
21%
22°C
39%
23°C or higher
51%
13°C or below 51%
23°C or higher 51%
22°C 39%
18°C 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 15, 2026
13°C or below
$10 Обс.
51%
14°C
$10 Обс.
17%
15°C
$8 Обс.
20%
16°C
$0 Обс.
21%
17°C
$0 Обс.
23%
18°C
$0 Обс.
29%
19°C
$0 Обс.
28%
20°C
$0 Обс.
23%
21°C
$0 Обс.
21%
22°C
$10 Обс.
39%
23°C or higher
$10 Обс.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and national meteorological services converge on a minimum temperature of 18–19°C for Milan on September 15, driven by clear skies, light easterly winds under 5 km/h, and high pressure maintaining dry conditions that permit moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with current surface observations near 19°C and diurnal ranges typical of late-summer anticyclonic setups, where daytime highs reach 26–28°C before temperatures bottom out around dawn. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects model agreement on the absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as increased cloud cover or northerly flow, while the notable share assigned to 13°C or below captures residual tail risk from forecast shifts in steering patterns. Historical September minima average near 14°C, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated model runs and official NHC-equivalent briefings from Italian agencies will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$48Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and national meteorological services converge on a minimum temperature of 18–19°C for Milan on September 15, driven by clear skies, light easterly winds under 5 km/h, and high pressure maintaining dry conditions that permit moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with current surface observations near 19°C and diurnal ranges typical of late-summer anticyclonic setups, where daytime highs reach 26–28°C before temperatures bottom out around dawn. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects model agreement on the absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as increased cloud cover or northerly flow, while the notable share assigned to 13°C or below captures residual tail risk from forecast shifts in steering patterns. Historical September minima average near 14°C, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated model runs and official NHC-equivalent briefings from Italian agencies will provide the next key data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$48Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including ECMWF, GFS, and national meteorological services converge on a minimum temperature of 18–19°C for Milan on September 15, driven by clear skies, light easterly winds under 5 km/h, and high pressure maintaining dry conditions that permit moderate overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with current surface observations near 19°C and diurnal ranges typical of late-summer anticyclonic setups, where daytime highs reach 26–28°C before temperatures bottom out around dawn. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects model agreement on the absence of stronger cooling mechanisms such as increased cloud cover or northerly flow, while the notable share assigned to 13°C or below captures residual tail risk from forecast shifts in steering patterns. Historical September minima average near 14°C, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated model runs and official NHC-equivalent briefings from Italian agencies will provide the next key data points before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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