Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a warming trend over Tokyo, with southerly flow and reduced overnight cloud cover expected to produce a minimum temperature near 24°C on September 14. This follows several cooler, rainier days with recorded lows in the 17–20°C range. Multiple sources converge on overnight lows of 23–25°C, aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 44% implied probability. Minor model spread around timing of any late-day showers or wind shifts accounts for the secondary weight on 25°C and the 21% chance assigned to 20°C or below, while probabilities for extremes remain low given the established pattern and short time horizon to resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
24°C 44%
20°C or below 35%
23°C 31%
26°C 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
35%
21°C
21%
22°C
23%
23°C
31%
24°C
44%
25°C
33%
26°C
26%
27°C
8%
28°C
5%
29°C
5%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 44%
20°C or below 35%
23°C 31%
26°C 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Обс.
35%
21°C
$0 Обс.
21%
22°C
$0 Обс.
23%
23°C
$0 Обс.
31%
24°C
$34 Обс.
44%
25°C
$176 Обс.
33%
26°C
$0 Обс.
26%
27°C
$0 Обс.
8%
28°C
$0 Обс.
5%
29°C
$0 Обс.
5%
30°C or higher
$0 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a warming trend over Tokyo, with southerly flow and reduced overnight cloud cover expected to produce a minimum temperature near 24°C on September 14. This follows several cooler, rainier days with recorded lows in the 17–20°C range. Multiple sources converge on overnight lows of 23–25°C, aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 44% implied probability. Minor model spread around timing of any late-day showers or wind shifts accounts for the secondary weight on 25°C and the 21% chance assigned to 20°C or below, while probabilities for extremes remain low given the established pattern and short time horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$210Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a warming trend over Tokyo, with southerly flow and reduced overnight cloud cover expected to produce a minimum temperature near 24°C on September 14. This follows several cooler, rainier days with recorded lows in the 17–20°C range. Multiple sources converge on overnight lows of 23–25°C, aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 44% implied probability. Minor model spread around timing of any late-day showers or wind shifts accounts for the secondary weight on 25°C and the 21% chance assigned to 20°C or below, while probabilities for extremes remain low given the established pattern and short time horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$210Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show a warming trend over Tokyo, with southerly flow and reduced overnight cloud cover expected to produce a minimum temperature near 24°C on September 14. This follows several cooler, rainier days with recorded lows in the 17–20°C range. Multiple sources converge on overnight lows of 23–25°C, aligning with the market's leading 24°C outcome at 44% implied probability. Minor model spread around timing of any late-day showers or wind shifts accounts for the secondary weight on 25°C and the 21% chance assigned to 20°C or below, while probabilities for extremes remain low given the established pattern and short time horizon to resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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