Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market-implied 80% probability that no named storm will form before the June 1 start of hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center’s first daily Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, shows no organized disturbances or tropical waves with development potential over the next seven days, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where the average first named storm arrives around June 20. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase wind shear and suppress early activity, aligning with preseason forecasts calling for below-average totals overall. With only two weeks remaining and no imminent intensification signals from official monitoring, traders see limited pathways for pre-season formation absent a rapid, unexpected shift in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$341,219 Обс.
$341,219 Обс.
May 31, 2026
$341,219 Обс.
$341,219 Обс.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market-implied 80% probability that no named storm will form before the June 1 start of hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center’s first daily Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, shows no organized disturbances or tropical waves with development potential over the next seven days, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where the average first named storm arrives around June 20. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase wind shear and suppress early activity, aligning with preseason forecasts calling for below-average totals overall. With only two weeks remaining and no imminent intensification signals from official monitoring, traders see limited pathways for pre-season formation absent a rapid, unexpected shift in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$341,219Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market-implied 80% probability that no named storm will form before the June 1 start of hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center’s first daily Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, shows no organized disturbances or tropical waves with development potential over the next seven days, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where the average first named storm arrives around June 20. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase wind shear and suppress early activity, aligning with preseason forecasts calling for below-average totals overall. With only two weeks remaining and no imminent intensification signals from official monitoring, traders see limited pathways for pre-season formation absent a rapid, unexpected shift in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Обсяг
$341,219Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current conditions in the Atlantic basin strongly support the market-implied 80% probability that no named storm will form before the June 1 start of hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center’s first daily Tropical Weather Outlook, issued May 15, shows no organized disturbances or tropical waves with development potential over the next seven days, consistent with typical mid-May climatology where the average first named storm arrives around June 20. Emerging El Niño conditions are expected to increase wind shear and suppress early activity, aligning with preseason forecasts calling for below-average totals overall. With only two weeks remaining and no imminent intensification signals from official monitoring, traders see limited pathways for pre-season formation absent a rapid, unexpected shift in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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