Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the NY-03 House race as the Democratic incumbent seeking reelection on November 3. He defeated the same Republican challenger, former state assemblyman Mike LiPetri, by roughly three points in 2024. Recent union endorsements from the Nassau County Police Benevolent Association and New York City firefighters have reinforced his standing, offsetting more than $11 million in outside Republican spending, including heavy TV and mail attacks from a Trump-aligned super PAC. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, with models projecting Suozzi near 55 percent of the vote. This aligns with prediction market pricing that reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing his structural and organizational advantages in the Long Island and Queens district.