Traders in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand May interest-rate market are pricing an 86.5 percent chance of no change in the Official Cash Rate at the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the central bank’s April 8 decision to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent and its explicit guidance that policy should remain steady through 2026 to support economic recovery. Recent Middle East developments lifted near-term inflation expectations via higher oil prices, yet weak domestic demand and spare capacity continue to moderate medium-term pressures, keeping the balance of risks tilted toward a hold. Market-implied odds for a rate increase sit at just 14 percent, consistent with Governor Anna Breman’s hawkish hold stance and consensus forecasts that any first hike would occur only in the second half of the year. The May statement will be closely watched for any shift in forward guidance on inflation expectations and growth momentum.