SpaceX's Starship program has advanced through Version 3 test flights in 2026, including Flight 13's successful satellite deployment and intact heat shield performance after a controlled splashdown, yet neither stage has achieved routine tower catches followed by rapid reflights. Booster recovery progress contrasts with ongoing upper-stage challenges around thermal protection, precise landing dynamics, and refurbishment timelines, keeping full system reusability unproven despite Musk's comments on potential ship-catch attempts later this year. Historical delays in ambitious targets, combined with the need for multiple verified reuse cycles before 2027, underpin the 59% market-implied probability that the milestone will not occur. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming integrated flight tests and regulatory approvals for catch operations.