Moonshot's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with its trillion-plus parameters and strong long-horizon agent benchmarks, has lifted its implied odds to 35% and narrowed the gap with U.S. leaders. Anthropic's recent Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 updates, plus enterprise agent tooling, keep it close at 29%, while DeepSeek and OpenAI trail amid rapid iteration across labs. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard in six weeks, trader consensus reflects a tight field where model releases, benchmark gains, and open-source momentum can quickly shift relative agent capabilities among the top contenders.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоThird-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
Moonshot 31.8%
OpenAI 16%
Z.ai 16%
Anthropic 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
32%
OpenAI
16%
Z.ai
16%
Anthropic
27%
Microsoft
9%
ByteDance
8%
Mistral
8%
Meta
5%
Meituan
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
Alibaba
4%
4%
Amazon
4%
MiniMax
3%
Xiaomi
3%
Nvidia
3%
Baidu
3%
DeepSeek
22%
Moonshot 31.8%
OpenAI 16%
Z.ai 16%
Anthropic 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$90 Обс.
32%
OpenAI
$79 Обс.
16%
Z.ai
$79 Обс.
16%
Anthropic
$59 Обс.
27%
Microsoft
$20 Обс.
9%
ByteDance
$60 Обс.
8%
Mistral
$72 Обс.
8%
Meta
$20 Обс.
5%
Meituan
$20 Обс.
5%
SpaceXAI
$20 Обс.
4%
Alibaba
$34 Обс.
4%
$20 Обс.
4%
Amazon
$33 Обс.
4%
MiniMax
$20 Обс.
3%
Xiaomi
$25 Обс.
3%
Nvidia
$20 Обс.
3%
Baidu
$54 Обс.
3%
DeepSeek
$69 Обс.
22%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with its trillion-plus parameters and strong long-horizon agent benchmarks, has lifted its implied odds to 35% and narrowed the gap with U.S. leaders. Anthropic's recent Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 updates, plus enterprise agent tooling, keep it close at 29%, while DeepSeek and OpenAI trail amid rapid iteration across labs. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard in six weeks, trader consensus reflects a tight field where model releases, benchmark gains, and open-source momentum can quickly shift relative agent capabilities among the top contenders.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Обсяг
$795Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with its trillion-plus parameters and strong long-horizon agent benchmarks, has lifted its implied odds to 35% and narrowed the gap with U.S. leaders. Anthropic's recent Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 updates, plus enterprise agent tooling, keep it close at 29%, while DeepSeek and OpenAI trail amid rapid iteration across labs. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard in six weeks, trader consensus reflects a tight field where model releases, benchmark gains, and open-source momentum can quickly shift relative agent capabilities among the top contenders.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$795Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot's July 2026 release of the open-weight Kimi K3 model, with its trillion-plus parameters and strong long-horizon agent benchmarks, has lifted its implied odds to 35% and narrowed the gap with U.S. leaders. Anthropic's recent Opus 5 and Sonnet 5 updates, plus enterprise agent tooling, keep it close at 29%, while DeepSeek and OpenAI trail amid rapid iteration across labs. With resolution tied to the arena.ai Labs leaderboard in six weeks, trader consensus reflects a tight field where model releases, benchmark gains, and open-source momentum can quickly shift relative agent capabilities among the top contenders.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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