The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active draft since 1973, and reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional amendment to the Military Selective Service Act plus presidential approval. Recent developments center on the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automation of Selective Service registration effective December 2026, which streamlines existing requirements but does not authorize inductions or alter the legal threshold for activation. Trader consensus at 95%+ for no authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of pending legislation, ongoing reliance on recruitment, and lack of a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Realistic shifts could still occur through sudden escalation in major conflicts demanding rapid force expansion, prompting emergency congressional action within the calendar year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5% шанс
$521,257 Обс.
$521,257 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$521,257 Обс.
$521,257 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active draft since 1973, and reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional amendment to the Military Selective Service Act plus presidential approval. Recent developments center on the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automation of Selective Service registration effective December 2026, which streamlines existing requirements but does not authorize inductions or alter the legal threshold for activation. Trader consensus at 95%+ for no authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of pending legislation, ongoing reliance on recruitment, and lack of a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Realistic shifts could still occur through sudden escalation in major conflicts demanding rapid force expansion, prompting emergency congressional action within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Обсяг
$521,257Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active draft since 1973, and reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional amendment to the Military Selective Service Act plus presidential approval. Recent developments center on the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automation of Selective Service registration effective December 2026, which streamlines existing requirements but does not authorize inductions or alter the legal threshold for activation. Trader consensus at 95%+ for no authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of pending legislation, ongoing reliance on recruitment, and lack of a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Realistic shifts could still occur through sudden escalation in major conflicts demanding rapid force expansion, prompting emergency congressional action within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$521,257Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US maintains an all-volunteer force with no active draft since 1973, and reinstating conscription requires explicit congressional amendment to the Military Selective Service Act plus presidential approval. Recent developments center on the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automation of Selective Service registration effective December 2026, which streamlines existing requirements but does not authorize inductions or alter the legal threshold for activation. Trader consensus at 95%+ for no authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of pending legislation, ongoing reliance on recruitment, and lack of a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Realistic shifts could still occur through sudden escalation in major conflicts demanding rapid force expansion, prompting emergency congressional action within the calendar year.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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