Canada's unemployment rate has declined steadily through 2026, reaching 6.4% in July after averaging 6.91% for 2025 and posting a recent peak near 7.1% in late 2025, with net employment rising by 75,000 in July alone and the labor force participation rate edging higher to 65.1%. These trends, driven by private-sector hiring gains and a stabilizing post-tariff economic environment, support market-implied odds of 92.5% that the full-year 2026 average will fall short of prior highs since 2016. Strong consensus reflects consistent monthly data releases showing three consecutive declines since April. A sharp deterioration in GDP growth, renewed trade disruptions, or an abrupt rise in jobless claims could still push the annual figure higher and narrow the gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено8% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Feb 14, 2027
8% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Feb 14, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada's unemployment rate has declined steadily through 2026, reaching 6.4% in July after averaging 6.91% for 2025 and posting a recent peak near 7.1% in late 2025, with net employment rising by 75,000 in July alone and the labor force participation rate edging higher to 65.1%. These trends, driven by private-sector hiring gains and a stabilizing post-tariff economic environment, support market-implied odds of 92.5% that the full-year 2026 average will fall short of prior highs since 2016. Strong consensus reflects consistent monthly data releases showing three consecutive declines since April. A sharp deterioration in GDP growth, renewed trade disruptions, or an abrupt rise in jobless claims could still push the annual figure higher and narrow the gap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,375Дата завершення
Feb 15, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada's unemployment rate has declined steadily through 2026, reaching 6.4% in July after averaging 6.91% for 2025 and posting a recent peak near 7.1% in late 2025, with net employment rising by 75,000 in July alone and the labor force participation rate edging higher to 65.1%. These trends, driven by private-sector hiring gains and a stabilizing post-tariff economic environment, support market-implied odds of 92.5% that the full-year 2026 average will fall short of prior highs since 2016. Strong consensus reflects consistent monthly data releases showing three consecutive declines since April. A sharp deterioration in GDP growth, renewed trade disruptions, or an abrupt rise in jobless claims could still push the annual figure higher and narrow the gap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Обсяг
$9,375Дата завершення
Feb 15, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's unemployment rate has declined steadily through 2026, reaching 6.4% in July after averaging 6.91% for 2025 and posting a recent peak near 7.1% in late 2025, with net employment rising by 75,000 in July alone and the labor force participation rate edging higher to 65.1%. These trends, driven by private-sector hiring gains and a stabilizing post-tariff economic environment, support market-implied odds of 92.5% that the full-year 2026 average will fall short of prior highs since 2016. Strong consensus reflects consistent monthly data releases showing three consecutive declines since April. A sharp deterioration in GDP growth, renewed trade disruptions, or an abrupt rise in jobless claims could still push the annual figure higher and narrow the gap.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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