Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, combined with refined orbital models and ground-based surveys like Pan-STARRS, shows no large meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for no 1-megaton event. Decades of data place such impacts on timescales of centuries rather than single years, with the most recent comparable airburst (Chelyabinsk at roughly 0.5 megatons) occurring over a decade ago. Strong trader consensus reflects verified absence of threats from planetary defense systems rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% khả năng
$117,272 KL.
$117,272 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
2% khả năng
$117,272 KL.
$117,272 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, combined with refined orbital models and ground-based surveys like Pan-STARRS, shows no large meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for no 1-megaton event. Decades of data place such impacts on timescales of centuries rather than single years, with the most recent comparable airburst (Chelyabinsk at roughly 0.5 megatons) occurring over a decade ago. Strong trader consensus reflects verified absence of threats from planetary defense systems rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Thị trường mở: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$117,272Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, combined with refined orbital models and ground-based surveys like Pan-STARRS, shows no large meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for no 1-megaton event. Decades of data place such impacts on timescales of centuries rather than single years, with the most recent comparable airburst (Chelyabinsk at roughly 0.5 megatons) occurring over a decade ago. Strong trader consensus reflects verified absence of threats from planetary defense systems rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Khối lượng
$117,272Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects, combined with refined orbital models and ground-based surveys like Pan-STARRS, shows no large meteoroids on collision trajectories for 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied odds for no 1-megaton event. Decades of data place such impacts on timescales of centuries rather than single years, with the most recent comparable airburst (Chelyabinsk at roughly 0.5 megatons) occurring over a decade ago. Strong trader consensus reflects verified absence of threats from planetary defense systems rather than speculation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare errors in trajectory calculations, though both face significant observational and technical barriers before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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