Heightened partisan mobilization, driven by Democratic primary overperformance, special election gains, and an enthusiasm gap tied to low presidential approval, supports trader expectations for House turnout in the 115-130 million range. Expanded mail and early voting access, sustained fundraising in competitive districts, and nationalized messaging on economic and policy issues have raised the structural floor above historical midterm baselines of 100-115 million. The market remains tight because Republican base turnout efforts, demographic shifts among infrequent voters, and potential late-cycle variables like economic conditions or weather could still adjust totals either way. Generic ballot leads and primary data continue to anchor consensus near the upper end of recent cycles.