Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside the Tunb islands amid a long-standing sovereignty dispute with the UAE. As of mid-August 2026, Iranian forces including Revolutionary Guard units continue to operate bases, air defenses, and patrol vessels from the island. Recent escalations in the broader Iran-US conflict have included American strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, alongside reports of Emirati airstrikes targeting sites there, raising the prospect of further military operations or occupation attempts tied to efforts to secure shipping lanes. Diplomatic claims by the UAE and supporting statements from the GCC and others persist without altering on-ground control, while any resolution would hinge on the trajectory of ongoing hostilities, potential ceasefires, or negotiated settlements within the market's timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$88,049 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$88,049 KL.
August 31
$81,381 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside the Tunb islands amid a long-standing sovereignty dispute with the UAE. As of mid-August 2026, Iranian forces including Revolutionary Guard units continue to operate bases, air defenses, and patrol vessels from the island. Recent escalations in the broader Iran-US conflict have included American strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, alongside reports of Emirati airstrikes targeting sites there, raising the prospect of further military operations or occupation attempts tied to efforts to secure shipping lanes. Diplomatic claims by the UAE and supporting statements from the GCC and others persist without altering on-ground control, while any resolution would hinge on the trajectory of ongoing hostilities, potential ceasefires, or negotiated settlements within the market's timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$88,049Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside the Tunb islands amid a long-standing sovereignty dispute with the UAE. As of mid-August 2026, Iranian forces including Revolutionary Guard units continue to operate bases, air defenses, and patrol vessels from the island. Recent escalations in the broader Iran-US conflict have included American strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, alongside reports of Emirati airstrikes targeting sites there, raising the prospect of further military operations or occupation attempts tied to efforts to secure shipping lanes. Diplomatic claims by the UAE and supporting statements from the GCC and others persist without altering on-ground control, while any resolution would hinge on the trajectory of ongoing hostilities, potential ceasefires, or negotiated settlements within the market's timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$88,049Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, a strategically positioned territory in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, which it seized in 1971 alongside the Tunb islands amid a long-standing sovereignty dispute with the UAE. As of mid-August 2026, Iranian forces including Revolutionary Guard units continue to operate bases, air defenses, and patrol vessels from the island. Recent escalations in the broader Iran-US conflict have included American strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in July 2026, alongside reports of Emirati airstrikes targeting sites there, raising the prospect of further military operations or occupation attempts tied to efforts to secure shipping lanes. Diplomatic claims by the UAE and supporting statements from the GCC and others persist without altering on-ground control, while any resolution would hinge on the trajectory of ongoing hostilities, potential ceasefires, or negotiated settlements within the market's timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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