Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and forecasts indicating a very strong event through late 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus (>1.29 °C at 96.2% implied probability) for August global mean surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent observational data show accelerated warming at ~0.35 °C per decade since 2015, with the 12-month average through mid-2026 near 1.45 °C and multiple agencies confirming near-record monthly and annual values. This El Niño boost, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes sub-1.29 °C outcomes highly improbable. Only an abrupt weakening of the event or major data revisions could realistically shift the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 96.2%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.6%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,858 KL.
$13,858 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
4%
>1.29ºC
96%
>1.29ºC 96.2%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.6%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,858 KL.
$13,858 KL.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 KL.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 KL.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 KL.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,077 KL.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,513 KL.
4%
>1.29ºC
$6,270 KL.
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and forecasts indicating a very strong event through late 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus (>1.29 °C at 96.2% implied probability) for August global mean surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent observational data show accelerated warming at ~0.35 °C per decade since 2015, with the 12-month average through mid-2026 near 1.45 °C and multiple agencies confirming near-record monthly and annual values. This El Niño boost, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes sub-1.29 °C outcomes highly improbable. Only an abrupt weakening of the event or major data revisions could realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,858Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and forecasts indicating a very strong event through late 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus (>1.29 °C at 96.2% implied probability) for August global mean surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent observational data show accelerated warming at ~0.35 °C per decade since 2015, with the 12-month average through mid-2026 near 1.45 °C and multiple agencies confirming near-record monthly and annual values. This El Niño boost, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes sub-1.29 °C outcomes highly improbable. Only an abrupt weakening of the event or major data revisions could realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$13,858Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño development in the tropical Pacific, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.0 °C and forecasts indicating a very strong event through late 2026, drives the overwhelming market consensus (>1.29 °C at 96.2% implied probability) for August global mean surface temperature anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent observational data show accelerated warming at ~0.35 °C per decade since 2015, with the 12-month average through mid-2026 near 1.45 °C and multiple agencies confirming near-record monthly and annual values. This El Niño boost, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes sub-1.29 °C outcomes highly improbable. Only an abrupt weakening of the event or major data revisions could realistically shift the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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