Amish Shah holds a strong lead in the AZ-01 House race as an open-seat contest in a district Trump carried by just three points in 2024. Recent polling shows Shah ahead by a slim margin among likely voters, driven by a 22-point edge with independents who disapprove of Trump’s job performance at high rates. Forecasters including Cook and Sabato have shifted ratings toward Lean Democratic in recent weeks, reflecting the impact of the open seat after incumbent David Schweikert’s failed gubernatorial bid. A late-October debate highlighted water policy and data-center concerns, areas where Shah has appealed to moderates. With early voting underway and independents pivotal for turnout, market pricing reflects traders’ assessment of Shah’s structural and demographic advantages heading into November.