California’s 11th congressional district, encompassing most of San Francisco, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+36 and has delivered overwhelming Democratic margins in recent statewide and federal contests. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2026 top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—to the November general election, with Republican contenders receiving under 6 percent combined. This structure and the district’s voter registration patterns have produced the current market pricing. A Democratic outcome could shift only under extraordinary circumstances such as a candidate’s withdrawal, party switch, or disqualification after the filing deadline, none of which have materialized.