The Central Bank of Chile’s October 26–27 policy meeting carries an 87% market-implied probability of holding the 4.5% monetary policy rate unchanged, reflecting persistent inflation above the 3% target alongside external pressures. September CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month to 4.1% year-over-year, with fuel and food components providing upward impetus even as core measures cooled modestly. The bank has repeatedly downgraded 2026 GDP growth forecasts to a 0.25–0.75% range amid softening domestic demand and labor-market weakness, yet continues to emphasize meeting-by-meeting decisions given geopolitical risks from the U.S.–Iran conflict and spillovers from tighter U.S. monetary policy. Recent operator surveys and forward inflation expectations anchored near 3% reinforce the case for stability through year-end.