Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over Strait of Hormuz access, including March 2026 U.S. strikes on Kharg Island military targets and subsequent naval clashes, have centered trader attention on whether any of the four islands will change hands. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports and loading capacity near 7 million barrels per day, making seizure a direct threat to Tehran's oil revenue while risking broader supply disruptions through the waterway that moves about 20% of global oil trade. Despite deployments of U.S. Marines and airborne forces earlier this year and repeated warnings of potential occupation or blockade, no ground operations have altered control. Market-implied odds remain low, reflecting the high economic costs of escalation and absence of imminent resolution catalysts before late-August or September deadlines.