Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$23,086 KL.
$23,086 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
51%
Democratic Party
46%
$23,086 KL.
$23,086 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$12,260 KL.
51%
Democratic Party
$10,826 KL.
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Khối lượng
$23,086Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$23,086Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor faces a tightened contest in Florida's 14th district after recent redistricting shifted boundaries southward and eastward into more rural, Republican-leaning portions of Hillsborough County. The new map gives the seat a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4, with analysts noting former President Trump would have carried the updated district by roughly 10 points. Both parties hold contested August 18 primaries ahead of the November general election, and national midterm dynamics plus fundraising trends keep the race within a narrow band. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a modest 56.5% implied probability, reflecting Castor's long incumbency and name recognition against the structural headwinds of the revised district lines. Late primary results or shifts in the broader political environment could quickly widen the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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