Beatriz Mojica Morga holds an 85.3% implied probability in the Guerrero gubernatorial election market after Morena designated her state coordinator for the defense of the transformation in mid-September 2026 following internal surveys where she outperformed rivals including Esthela Damián Peralta and Abelina López Rodríguez. This process, resolved through party polling and mirror surveys, positions her as the virtual nominee for the June 2027 vote in a state where Morena maintains a substantial lead in party identification and vote intention over the PRI and other opponents. Manuel Añorve Baños registers far lower odds as the leading opposition figure, while numerous low-probability entries reflect uncertainty over final ballot placements. Trader consensus aligns with Mojica’s organizational backing and Morena’s structural advantage ahead of the election.