Recent political developments in Guinea-Bissau keep the constitutional referendum market tightly contested. The transitional military authorities announced an August 30, 2026, vote on a draft constitution expanding presidential powers under a semi-presidential system, following the 2025 coup and establishment of a National Transitional Council. Extra-parliamentary opposition groups have quickly demanded postponement, citing insufficient inclusivity and procedural concerns, adding immediate uncertainty about whether the referendum will proceed on schedule. These competing pressures—junta momentum toward constitutional reform versus opposition resistance and potential delays—explain the near-even pricing across “Passes,” “Fails,” and “No Referendum in 2026.” Upcoming statements from regional bodies, opposition mobilization, or transitional government responses could quickly shift trader consensus on timing and approval prospects.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPasses 63%
No Referendum in 2026 14%
Fails 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
63%
Fails
13%
No Referendum in 2026
14%
Passes 63%
No Referendum in 2026 14%
Fails 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 30, 2026
Passes
$102 KL.
63%
Fails
$163 KL.
13%
No Referendum in 2026
$21 KL.
14%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).Recent political developments in Guinea-Bissau keep the constitutional referendum market tightly contested. The transitional military authorities announced an August 30, 2026, vote on a draft constitution expanding presidential powers under a semi-presidential system, following the 2025 coup and establishment of a National Transitional Council. Extra-parliamentary opposition groups have quickly demanded postponement, citing insufficient inclusivity and procedural concerns, adding immediate uncertainty about whether the referendum will proceed on schedule. These competing pressures—junta momentum toward constitutional reform versus opposition resistance and potential delays—explain the near-even pricing across “Passes,” “Fails,” and “No Referendum in 2026.” Upcoming statements from regional bodies, opposition mobilization, or transitional government responses could quickly shift trader consensus on timing and approval prospects.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Thị trường mở: Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$286Ngày kết thúc
Aug 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).Recent political developments in Guinea-Bissau keep the constitutional referendum market tightly contested. The transitional military authorities announced an August 30, 2026, vote on a draft constitution expanding presidential powers under a semi-presidential system, following the 2025 coup and establishment of a National Transitional Council. Extra-parliamentary opposition groups have quickly demanded postponement, citing insufficient inclusivity and procedural concerns, adding immediate uncertainty about whether the referendum will proceed on schedule. These competing pressures—junta momentum toward constitutional reform versus opposition resistance and potential delays—explain the near-even pricing across “Passes,” “Fails,” and “No Referendum in 2026.” Upcoming statements from regional bodies, opposition mobilization, or transitional government responses could quickly shift trader consensus on timing and approval prospects.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Khối lượng
$286Ngày kết thúc
Aug 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent political developments in Guinea-Bissau keep the constitutional referendum market tightly contested. The transitional military authorities announced an August 30, 2026, vote on a draft constitution expanding presidential powers under a semi-presidential system, following the 2025 coup and establishment of a National Transitional Council. Extra-parliamentary opposition groups have quickly demanded postponement, citing insufficient inclusivity and procedural concerns, adding immediate uncertainty about whether the referendum will proceed on schedule. These competing pressures—junta momentum toward constitutional reform versus opposition resistance and potential delays—explain the near-even pricing across “Passes,” “Fails,” and “No Referendum in 2026.” Upcoming statements from regional bodies, opposition mobilization, or transitional government responses could quickly shift trader consensus on timing and approval prospects.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp