Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's bid for re-election in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92% to win the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's historical partisan lean—D+14 Cook PVI—and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Steve Bond. State Sen. Brenton Awa's recent entry as the GOP challenger has yet to meaningfully shift odds, as Hawaii Republicans face steep structural barriers including low baseline turnout and fundraising disadvantages in non-competitive midterms. Upsets remain possible via a national Republican wave, primary surprises on August 8, or unforeseen Tokuda vulnerabilities like scandals or health issues, though such scenarios carry low implied probability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$53,097 KL.
$53,097 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$53,097 KL.
$53,097 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$42,836 KL.
92%
Republican Party
$10,261 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's bid for re-election in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92% to win the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's historical partisan lean—D+14 Cook PVI—and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Steve Bond. State Sen. Brenton Awa's recent entry as the GOP challenger has yet to meaningfully shift odds, as Hawaii Republicans face steep structural barriers including low baseline turnout and fundraising disadvantages in non-competitive midterms. Upsets remain possible via a national Republican wave, primary surprises on August 8, or unforeseen Tokuda vulnerabilities like scandals or health issues, though such scenarios carry low implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Khối lượng
$53,097Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's bid for re-election in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92% to win the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's historical partisan lean—D+14 Cook PVI—and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Steve Bond. State Sen. Brenton Awa's recent entry as the GOP challenger has yet to meaningfully shift odds, as Hawaii Republicans face steep structural barriers including low baseline turnout and fundraising disadvantages in non-competitive midterms. Upsets remain possible via a national Republican wave, primary surprises on August 8, or unforeseen Tokuda vulnerabilities like scandals or health issues, though such scenarios carry low implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$53,097Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's bid for re-election in Hawaii's solidly Democratic 2nd Congressional District underpins trader consensus pricing Democrats at 92% to win the November 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's historical partisan lean—D+14 Cook PVI—and her decisive 2024 victory over Republican Steve Bond. State Sen. Brenton Awa's recent entry as the GOP challenger has yet to meaningfully shift odds, as Hawaii Republicans face steep structural barriers including low baseline turnout and fundraising disadvantages in non-competitive midterms. Upsets remain possible via a national Republican wave, primary surprises on August 8, or unforeseen Tokuda vulnerabilities like scandals or health issues, though such scenarios carry low implied probability.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp