Latest numerical weather prediction models from agencies including Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global ensembles indicate a daytime maximum in Buenos Aires on June 12 likely between 15°C and 17°C, consistent with climatological norms for early winter when average highs reach about 15–16°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–17°C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty arising from variables such as cloud cover, wind speed, and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the peak temperature by 1–2°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest given stable synoptic patterns, yet small revisions in the next model cycles could readily alter probabilities between the leading outcomes.