Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a highest temperature in Chicago on September 18 most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly to northeasterly winds off Lake Michigan, and residual moisture from passing showers that moderate daytime heating. Onshore flow and overcast skies limit solar warming, keeping readings below the 75°F climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering in the 71–74°F range with limited upside potential from clearing, while downside risk remains if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weight these atmospheric conditions and lake-effect cooling heavily, producing the observed concentration of implied probability in the 70–75°F bins ahead of final observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Chicago on September 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 18?
72-73°F 37%
74-75°F 27%
70-71°F 24%
68-69°F 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
24%
72-73°F
37%
74-75°F
27%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 37%
74-75°F 27%
70-71°F 24%
68-69°F 9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 18, 2026
63°F or below
$95 KL.
<1%
64-65°F
$173 KL.
1%
66-67°F
$31 KL.
2%
68-69°F
$1,990 KL.
9%
70-71°F
$1,163 KL.
24%
72-73°F
$322 KL.
37%
74-75°F
$453 KL.
27%
76-77°F
$120 KL.
6%
78-79°F
$113 KL.
2%
80-81°F
$125 KL.
1%
82°F or higher
$181 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a highest temperature in Chicago on September 18 most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly to northeasterly winds off Lake Michigan, and residual moisture from passing showers that moderate daytime heating. Onshore flow and overcast skies limit solar warming, keeping readings below the 75°F climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering in the 71–74°F range with limited upside potential from clearing, while downside risk remains if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weight these atmospheric conditions and lake-effect cooling heavily, producing the observed concentration of implied probability in the 70–75°F bins ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,765Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a highest temperature in Chicago on September 18 most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly to northeasterly winds off Lake Michigan, and residual moisture from passing showers that moderate daytime heating. Onshore flow and overcast skies limit solar warming, keeping readings below the 75°F climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering in the 71–74°F range with limited upside potential from clearing, while downside risk remains if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weight these atmospheric conditions and lake-effect cooling heavily, producing the observed concentration of implied probability in the 70–75°F bins ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,765Ngày kết thúc
Sep 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 16, 2026, 3:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a highest temperature in Chicago on September 18 most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F, driven by persistent cloud cover, easterly to northeasterly winds off Lake Michigan, and residual moisture from passing showers that moderate daytime heating. Onshore flow and overcast skies limit solar warming, keeping readings below the 75°F climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts show tight clustering in the 71–74°F range with limited upside potential from clearing, while downside risk remains if heavier rain develops. Traders appear to weight these atmospheric conditions and lake-effect cooling heavily, producing the observed concentration of implied probability in the 70–75°F bins ahead of final observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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