**Trader consensus strongly favors 28°C as Manila's highest temperature on August 5, 2026 (86.5% implied probability), with 29°C a distant second (11.0%).** This positioning reflects official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila showing a maximum of 30°C under persistent cloud cover and 90% rain probability from the enhanced southwest monsoon, further influenced by recent Tropical Cyclone Luis. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and keep actual highs near or below the lower end of the seasonal range. Historically, Manila's August average high reaches about 31°C, but monsoon-driven convection and heavy rainfall—common in the wet season—frequently suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus and observational trends support temperatures clustering around 28–30°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C while assigning minimal odds to extremes. Updated PAGASA guidance and any late-day convective changes remain the key variables that could shift resolution within the narrow implied range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Manila on August 5?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 5?
28°C 85%
29°C 12%
30°C 5%
31°C <1%
$18,452 KL.
$18,452 KL.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
85%
29°C
12%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 85%
29°C 12%
30°C 5%
31°C <1%
$18,452 KL.
$18,452 KL.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
$938 KL.
<1%
23°C
$267 KL.
<1%
24°C
$434 KL.
<1%
25°C
$440 KL.
<1%
26°C
$1,625 KL.
<1%
27°C
$2,596 KL.
<1%
28°C
$2,455 KL.
85%
29°C
$3,711 KL.
12%
30°C
$2,363 KL.
5%
31°C
$2,163 KL.
1%
32°C or higher
$1,461 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 28°C as Manila's highest temperature on August 5, 2026 (86.5% implied probability), with 29°C a distant second (11.0%).**
This positioning reflects official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila showing a maximum of 30°C under persistent cloud cover and 90% rain probability from the enhanced southwest monsoon, further influenced by recent Tropical Cyclone Luis. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and keep actual highs near or below the lower end of the seasonal range.
Historically, Manila's August average high reaches about 31°C, but monsoon-driven convection and heavy rainfall—common in the wet season—frequently suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus and observational trends support temperatures clustering around 28–30°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C while assigning minimal odds to extremes. Updated PAGASA guidance and any late-day convective changes remain the key variables that could shift resolution within the narrow implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$18,452Ngày kết thúc
Aug 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 28°C as Manila's highest temperature on August 5, 2026 (86.5% implied probability), with 29°C a distant second (11.0%).**
This positioning reflects official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila showing a maximum of 30°C under persistent cloud cover and 90% rain probability from the enhanced southwest monsoon, further influenced by recent Tropical Cyclone Luis. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and keep actual highs near or below the lower end of the seasonal range.
Historically, Manila's August average high reaches about 31°C, but monsoon-driven convection and heavy rainfall—common in the wet season—frequently suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus and observational trends support temperatures clustering around 28–30°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C while assigning minimal odds to extremes. Updated PAGASA guidance and any late-day convective changes remain the key variables that could shift resolution within the narrow implied range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$18,452Ngày kết thúc
Aug 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 3, 2026, 12:09 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 28°C as Manila's highest temperature on August 5, 2026 (86.5% implied probability), with 29°C a distant second (11.0%).** This positioning reflects official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila showing a maximum of 30°C under persistent cloud cover and 90% rain probability from the enhanced southwest monsoon, further influenced by recent Tropical Cyclone Luis. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and keep actual highs near or below the lower end of the seasonal range. Historically, Manila's August average high reaches about 31°C, but monsoon-driven convection and heavy rainfall—common in the wet season—frequently suppress peaks by several degrees through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Recent model consensus and observational trends support temperatures clustering around 28–30°C, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 28°C while assigning minimal odds to extremes. Updated PAGASA guidance and any late-day convective changes remain the key variables that could shift resolution within the narrow implied range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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