Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models, incorporating the persistent marine layer and sea breeze typical of San Francisco in early August, positioned the daily maximum near the seasonal average of 69–73°F. These conditions limited inland heat advection, keeping observed and projected highs firmly in the low 70s range according to multiple model runs and station data leading into August 4. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability for 72–73°F reflects this strong alignment between climatological baselines, real-time observations, and minimal forecast spread. A sudden model shift showing stronger offshore flow or delayed marine intrusion could have altered outcomes, though such developments remained unlikely given stable atmospheric patterns through the period.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 4?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 4?
72-73°F 98%
74-75°F 2%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
$45,290 KL.
$45,290 KL.
Aug 4, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
98%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 98%
74-75°F 2%
67°F or below <1%
68-69°F <1%
$45,290 KL.
$45,290 KL.
Aug 4, 2026
67°F or below
$1,466 KL.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,620 KL.
<1%
70-71°F
$5,959 KL.
<1%
72-73°F
$8,931 KL.
98%
74-75°F
$3,549 KL.
2%
76-77°F
$6,372 KL.
<1%
78-79°F
$3,952 KL.
<1%
80-81°F
$5,267 KL.
<1%
82-83°F
$4,037 KL.
<1%
84-85°F
$4,417 KL.
<1%
86°F or higher
$2,319 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models, incorporating the persistent marine layer and sea breeze typical of San Francisco in early August, positioned the daily maximum near the seasonal average of 69–73°F. These conditions limited inland heat advection, keeping observed and projected highs firmly in the low 70s range according to multiple model runs and station data leading into August 4. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability for 72–73°F reflects this strong alignment between climatological baselines, real-time observations, and minimal forecast spread. A sudden model shift showing stronger offshore flow or delayed marine intrusion could have altered outcomes, though such developments remained unlikely given stable atmospheric patterns through the period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$45,290Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models, incorporating the persistent marine layer and sea breeze typical of San Francisco in early August, positioned the daily maximum near the seasonal average of 69–73°F. These conditions limited inland heat advection, keeping observed and projected highs firmly in the low 70s range according to multiple model runs and station data leading into August 4. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability for 72–73°F reflects this strong alignment between climatological baselines, real-time observations, and minimal forecast spread. A sudden model shift showing stronger offshore flow or delayed marine intrusion could have altered outcomes, though such developments remained unlikely given stable atmospheric patterns through the period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$45,290Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and NOAA models, incorporating the persistent marine layer and sea breeze typical of San Francisco in early August, positioned the daily maximum near the seasonal average of 69–73°F. These conditions limited inland heat advection, keeping observed and projected highs firmly in the low 70s range according to multiple model runs and station data leading into August 4. Trader consensus at 97.5% implied probability for 72–73°F reflects this strong alignment between climatological baselines, real-time observations, and minimal forecast spread. A sudden model shift showing stronger offshore flow or delayed marine intrusion could have altered outcomes, though such developments remained unlikely given stable atmospheric patterns through the period.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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