Traders have priced the 72–73°F bin highest at 53% implied probability for San Francisco’s August 5 daily maximum, reflecting the National Weather Service’s consensus forecast of a mild summer day near or slightly above the long-term August average high of ~70°F. Persistent marine-layer influence and onshore flow from the Pacific typically cap coastal highs in this range, with recent model runs showing limited afternoon warming and no strong offshore winds or heat advection. Surrounding bins (70–71°F at 19%, 74–75°F at 24.5%) capture residual forecast spread, while higher outcomes remain low-probability given climatological rarity of 78°F+ readings this early in the month. Official observations from downtown stations will determine final resolution.